Search Results for: Federal Reserve

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 24, 2019 ~ Last Friday the Federal Reserve Bank of New York made it clear that its interventions in the overnight repo lending market were going to be a longer-term action. Call it what you will, the Fed has effectively returned to quantitative easing (QE) where it buys up Treasuries, Federal agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from financial institutions in exchange for loans. According to the New York Fed, the program has now been extended to at least October 10 and likely thereafter in one form or another. The Fed will be pumping in $75 billion daily in overnight repo loans while infusing $30 billion in 14-day term loans three times this week for a total of $90 billion in term loans. The fact that there is one or more financial firms needing $30 billion on a two-week basis and can’t … Continue reading →

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 23, 2019 ~  WeWork’s business model isn’t workable. Everybody understands that except the Wall Street bank that has the most to lose if WeWork’s initial public offering (IPO) of its stock doesn’t move forward. That bank is JPMorgan Chase, one of the two main underwriters of the IPO, along with Goldman Sachs. WeWork’s business model is to take long-term leases in commercial office buildings and then sub-lease that space under short leases to small businesses, start-ups and freelancers – none of which are particularly known for their ability to pay rent in a downturn. WeWork is currently on the hook for more than $47 billion in long term leases while it has yet to figure out how to make a dime of profits. JPMorgan Chase is so interconnected with WeWork that to a number of minds WeWork looks like little more than a … Continue reading →

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 20, 2019 ~ The storyline in the business press is that the lending rate on overnight repos had spiked to an unprecedented 10 percent, necessitating an emergency infusion of $53 billion by the New York Fed on Tuesday to ramp up liquidity for overnight loans and bring down the loan rate. (That was followed with $75 billion more on Wednesday, Thursday and today – raising the question that if the money is going to the same banks, isn’t that a term loan, not an overnight loan? We don’t know, however, if the money is going to the same banks because the Fed, as it did during the 2008 financial crisis, is staying mum about where the money is going.) As it turns out, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directive that authorized the Tuesday operation was dated July 31, 2019 – … Continue reading →

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 19, 2019 ~ Following a lack of liquidity on Wall Street, which necessitated the Federal Reserve having to provide $53 billion on Tuesday and another $75 billion on Wednesday to normalize overnight lending in the repo market, the Chairman of the Fed, Jerome (Jay) Powell held his press conference at 2:30 p.m. yesterday. The press gathering followed both a one-quarter point cut in the Fed Funds rate by the Fed yesterday as well as the first intervention by the Fed in the overnight lending market since the financial crash. (The Fed had to intervene again this morning, making another $75 billion in repo loans available.) The week’s unsettling events should have provided the basis for reporters to fire questions at the Fed Chair along the following lines: (1) Did the overnight repo lending rate jump to an historical high of 10 percent on … Continue reading →

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 18, 2019 ~ Yesterday felt a little like that scene from the 1946 movie “It’s a Wonderful Life” starring Jimmy Stewart. There’s a run on Stewart’s bank because his absent-minded Uncle Billy loses the cash he was sent off to deposit on behalf of the bank. The bank examiners discover there’s money missing and rumors spread. The rumors that spread yesterday were not that money was missing at a Wall Street bank but that liquidity was missing. It had dried up to the point that the major Wall Street banks could not, or would not, handle the demand for loans called overnight repurchase agreements (repos) that were coming their way. (Repos are a short-term form of borrowing where corporations, banks, brokerage firms and hedge funds secure loans by providing safe forms of collateral such as Treasury notes.) The oversized demand for the repos … Continue reading →

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 13, 2019 ~  During last evening’s Democratic debate, Senator Bernie Sanders said this: “You’ve got three people in America owning more wealth than the bottom half of this country.” According to Politifact, Sanders is basing this claim on a 2017 study done by the Institute for Policy Studies which put the richest three Americans’ wealth as follows (based on the Forbes list of billionaires at that time): Bill Gates of Microsoft with $89 billion; Jeff Bezos of Amazon with $81.5 billion; and Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway with $78 billion — for a total of $248.5 billion. That wealth figure contrasts with the $245 billion owned by the bottom 50 percent of Americans according to the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances conducted by the Federal Reserve. (The Fed’s survey is conducted every three years and the 2019 study has not yet been released.) But … Continue reading →

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 10, 2019 ~ Citigroup released an analyst’s note yesterday stating that “We expect spot gold prices to trade stronger for longer, possibly breaching $2,000 an ounce and posting new cyclical highs at some point in the next year or two.” Gold was last on a record-breaking streak in 2011 when it shot through handles of $1500, $1600, $1700 and $1800 from April through August of that year. On an intraday trading basis, gold reached a high of $1,917.90 an ounce on August 23, 2011 and another intraday high of $1923.70 on September 6, 2011. Gold then spent the next five years trading back down to the $1100 range. As the chart above indicates, gold has been moving decidedly higher this year, up 16.9 percent from January 2, 2019 to yesterday’s close. At 9:16 this morning, gold was trading at $1,504.40 an ounce. Is … Continue reading →

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 9, 2019 ~ On January 26, 2018 the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new record high of 26,616.71. Despite setting new highs multiple times thereafter, the moves were so negligible on a percentage basis that the reality is that the stock market has been a real dog over the past year and a half. This past Friday, the Dow closed at 26,797.46. That’s a meager 180.75 points, or less than a one percent move, in 19 months. That’s not exactly the stuff that retirement dreams are built on. But if you’re a typical American who has to rely on headlines or TV sound bites to tell you what’s going on in the market because you’re too busy working long hours, running the kids to dentist appointments and soccer games, doing grocery shopping and laundry on the weekends, then you may have been … Continue reading →

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: August 29, 2019 ~ Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 258 points but the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury fell below 1.50 percent. In a normal market, if stocks are rallying that means there is confidence in the trajectory of economic growth in the U.S. When yields are collapsing on U.S. Treasuries, that means there is no confidence of sustained growth in the economy. So you can see why yesterday’s market activity is a serious contradiction of norms. We believe the Treasury market is already discounting (looking ahead and factoring in) what the next recession is going to look like because of constraints on how much fiscal spending the Federal government can deploy. To understand just how unprecedented the current amount of national debt is, one has to have some historical figures. At the beginning of the Bill Clinton Presidency in … Continue reading →

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: August 22, 2019 ~ According to KPMG’s 2017 and 2018 audit of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed), which is just one of the 12 regional banks of the Federal Reserve System, it has provided more than half of all monies flowing to the U.S. Treasury from regional Fed banks since President Donald Trump took office. In 2017, the New York Fed shipped off $44.6 billion of the total $80.6 billion of all 12 regional banks that was remitted to the U.S. Treasury. In 2018, the New York Fed’s remittance was $33.6 billion of the total $65.3 billion from the regional Fed banks. But there was some fancy footwork in two pieces of Congressional legislation that were passed in 2018 that boosted the amount the New York Fed and other regional Fed banks would be shipping off to the Treasury … Continue reading →