By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 28, 2025 ~

Common sense voters in the U.S. didn’t need an economics degree or a crystal ball to predict that putting Donald Trump in the Oval Office for a second term – a man unanimously convicted of 34 felony counts by 12 members of a U.S. jury prior to his election – was not going to produce a shining moment in history for the United States.

Trump’s first 100 days in office in his second term arrives this week, and it comes on the wings of this headline: “Trump has lowest 100-day approval rating in 80 years.” That data comes from a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll showing that only 39 percent of poll respondents approve of how Trump is performing as President. A solid majority, 55 percent, said they disapprove.

Even more alarming for the U.S. economy – where two-thirds of GDP depends on spending by a confident consumer – is the poll result showing that 72 percent of respondents believe that it’s very or somewhat likely that Trump’s economic policies will deliver a recession in the near term. (Consumers tend to curtail spending in the face of economic uncertainty, adding to economic woes.)

The number crunchers at the highly respected GDPNow at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta are currently reporting their estimate of a negative GDP of -2.5 percent for the first quarter of this year. The actual GDP advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be reported this Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Adding to economic jitters, Americans are also watching in horror as Trump becomes ever more un-presidential, repealing laws to thwart corruption, threatening his perceived enemies with executive orders, and hurling invectives at anyone who dares to take an independent stand or defy him.

Under assault by Trump last Monday was the Chairman of the U.S. Central Bank, Jerome (Jay) Powell, whom Donald Trump called “a major loser ” on his propaganda blog ironically known as “Truth Social.” The stock market, rating agencies, and sophisticated Wall Street investors want a U.S. Central Bank (a/k/a Federal Reserve) that functions independently from the political baggage and erratic whims of this President. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reacted harshly last Monday to Trump’s insults against Powell by selling off to the tune of 971 points.

The Dow had experienced a 2,231-point crash on April 4 over Trump’s tariff chaos. Despite holding a degree from Wharton, Trump does not appear capable of understanding that a terrified consumer who is watching his 401(K) plunge in value is not going to boost growth in the U.S. economy via an uptick in personal spending.

The Wall Street Journal reported the following last week:

“There are some early warning signs. Consumers are holding off on nonessential splurges such as vacations. Executives at American Express and Citigroup said that travel and entertainment spending lost momentum in the first quarter, while spending in less discretionary categories picked up. The share of cardholders making only the minimum payment is running above prepandemic levels, Capital One said Tuesday.”

The global economic outlook is also darkening. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported last Tuesday that “The US effective tariff rate surged past levels reached during the Great Depression while counter-responses from major trading partners significantly pushed up the global rate.” The same IMF report noted the following:

“Dense global supply chains can magnify the effects of tariffs and uncertainty. Most traded goods are intermediate inputs that cross borders multiple times before being turned into final products. Disruptions can propagate up and down the global input-output network with potentially large multiplier effects, as we saw during the pandemic. Companies facing uncertain market access will likely pause in the near term, reduce investment and cut spending. Likewise, financial institutions will reassess borrowers’ exposure. The increased uncertainty and tightening of financial conditions could well dominate the short term, weighing on economic activity, as reflected in the sharp decline in oil prices.”

Adding to the U.S. consumers’ anxiety is the growing acknowledgement that Donald Trump endorses a law-less administration. Today, the New York Times has published quotes (paywall) from a wide swath of legal scholars on Trump and the rule of law. A sampling follows:

“More important than any specific example of unconstitutional conduct is the overall pattern. The depth and breadth of this administration’s disregard for civil liberties, political pluralism, the separation of powers and legal constraints of all kinds mark it as an authoritarian regime. That is the crucial thing to see.”
— David Pozen, Professor, Columbia Law School

“They seek a massive increase in presidential power, which if fully achieved would potentially undermine most of the constitutional separation of powers and create an elective monarchy or a quasi-authoritarian state. If they prevail, it would be terrible for the rule of law and liberal democratic values generally. But they can be stopped, and hopefully will be.”
— Ilya Somin, Professor, Antonin Scalia Law School, George Mason University

“The disregard for law is itself part of the agenda. They do not seem to care whether they violate the Constitution and statutes, make mistakes, do irreparable harm. That recklessness itself sends a message.”
— Jody Freeman, Professor, Harvard Law School